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Scenario Planning – Making Rational Decisions

Foreign Exchange Policy
A good foreign exchange policy is critical to the sound risk management of any corporate treasury. Without a policy decision are made as-hoc and generally without any consistency and accountability. It is important for treasury personnel to know what benchmarks they are aiming for and it’s important for senior management or the board to be confident that the risk of the business are being managed consistently and in accordance with overall corporate strategy.

Scenario Planning – Making Rational Decisions

The recognition of the financial risks associated with foreign exchange mean some decision needs to be made. The key to any good management is a rational approach to decision making. The most desirable method of management is the pre-planning of responses to movements in what are generally volatile markets so that emotions are dispensed with and previous careful planning is relied upon. This approach helps eliminate the panic factor as all outcomes have been considered including ‘worst case scenarios’, which could result from either action or inaction. However even though the worst case scenarios are considered and plans ensure that even the ‘worst case scenarios’ are acceptable (although not desirable), the pre-planning focuses on achieving the best result.

VAR (Value at Risk)

Banks trading in securities, foreign exchange, and derivatives but with the increased volatility in exchange rates and interest rates, managements have become more conscious about the risks associated with this kind of activity As a matter of fact more and more banks hake started looking at trading operations as lucrative profit making activity and their treasuries at times trade aggressively. This has forced the regulator’ authorities to address the issue of market risk apart from credit risk, these market players have to take an account of on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet positions. Market risk arises on account of changes in the price volatility of traded items, market sentiments and so on.

            Globally the regulators have prescribed capital adequacy norms under which, the risk weighted value for each group of assets owned by the bank is calculated separately, and then added up The banks have to provide capital, at the prescribed rate, for total assets so arrived at.

However this does not take care of market risks adequately. Hence an alternative approach to manage risk was developed for measuring risk on securities and derivatives trading books. Under this new-approach the banks can use an in-house computer model for valuing the risk in trading books known as ‘VALUE AT RISK MODEL (VaR MODEL).

            Under VaR model risk management is done on the basis of holistic approach unlike the approach under which the risk weighted value for each group of assets owned by a bank is calculated separately.

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